روش‌شناسی ارزش‌گذاری BTX

Compute Floor And Model Floor

The raw compute floor answers a narrow question: if BTX MatMul work is treated as a measurable share of Bitcoin's network work, what price does that imply per BTX? It uses Bitcoin price, Bitcoin hash rate, BTX one-week network MatMul rate, and the calibration constant `w`.

M_BTX_1w = getnetworkhashps(6720)
SEH = w · M_BTX_1w
P_raw = P_BTC · (SEH / H_BTC)

The security-equivalence invariant is deliberately simple: when `w · M_BTX_1w` equals Bitcoin hash rate, the raw compute floor equals Bitcoin price. In other words, equal Bitcoin-equivalent security gets equal raw security value before the model applies its public guardrails.

BTX_security_% = 100 · w · M_BTX_1w / H_BTC

The dashboard plots that same ratio as BTX difficulty versus Bitcoin: 100% means the parity check passes, while today's much smaller value shows how far the live BTX network is from Bitcoin-equivalent computational security.

BTX_security_%_12m = Σ p_s · capped_security_s(12)

The forward difficulty estimate is not a price premium. It starts with the live BTC-equivalent security percentage and applies only the probability-weighted security-adoption path. It excludes the Bitcoin risk-premium and supply layers used for the Forward Market Price.

H_BTC is the mempool.space `currentHashrate` value from `/api/v1/mining/hashrate/1w`, which mempool computes with Bitcoin Core `getnetworkhashps(1008)`. At Bitcoin's target block spacing, 1,008 blocks is the nominal one-week window. The endpoint's daily average buckets are retained only as a fallback so the live chart and model input keep updating as new Bitcoin blocks move the rolling window.

The public model floor keeps that raw value visible, then applies only the bounded supply layer. It does not substitute the historical effective MatMul release-envelope field for current network compute.

P_raw = P_BTC · (w · M_BTX_1w / H_BTC)
P_model = P_raw · F_supply
P_spot = P_model · (1 + risk_index · risk_spot_weight)

btc block height

954386

btc circulating supply

20044943

btc hashrate hps

929270524048054800000

btc price usd

62488

btx block height

135298

btx chainwork rate

8004540.791060085

btx chainwork rate method

getnetworkhashps(6720)

btx circulating supply

2705980

btx nonce rate

8004540.791060085

btx nonce rate effective

8004540.791060085

btx nonce rate epsilon bits

18

btx nonce rate mean interval seconds

88.78720238095238624606525119

btx nonce rate method

matmul_nonce_seed_v3_fix_weighted(getnetworkhashps(6720)+chainwork_window;v2=125000;v3=130500;v03211=132000)

btx nonce rate multiplier

1

btx nonce rate raw

8004540.791060085

btx nonce rate raw deprecated

true

btx nonce rate window blocks

6720

btx nonce rate window label

1w

btx nonce rate window seconds

604800

btx nonce rate work per block

710700783.1824404761904761905

btx security percent

0.03897862791443078964638718332

btx security percent 12m

0.9704870699463389515132923998

effective network matmul rate hps

8004540.791060085

matmul security weight

45251427826.03048142932710193

network matmul rate hps

8004540.791060085

security equiv hashrate hps

362216899887172372.2513438126

Nonce Measurement

The dashboard's headline Network MatMul Rate is not an instantaneous miner hardware counter. It is the rolling chain-inferred `getnetworkhashps(6720)` MatMul/sec signal from the matching chainwork window. BTX targets 90-second blocks, so 6,720 blocks is one nominal week: `604,800 / 90 = 6,720`.

Version 1.7.2 accounts for BTX nonce-seed v2 at block 125,000. Rows through block 124,999 retain the legacy shared-seed raw-nonce transform as an audit field. The public chart and valuation input use the continuous `network_matmul_rate_hps` chainwork/sec field so a method-boundary label change does not look like vanished compute.

The raw protocol field is `btx_nonce_rate_raw`; it is useful for auditing the legacy shared-seed transition, but it is not the BTC-equivalent compute series.

if btx_block_height <= 124999:
  btx_nonce_rate_raw = max(getnetworkhashps(6720), getnetworkhashps(6720) · work_per_block / 2^epsilon)
if btx_block_height >= 125000:
  btx_nonce_rate_raw = weighted legacy/v2/v3/v0.32.11 audit rate across the 6,720-block window
network_matmul_rate_hps = getnetworkhashps(6720)
security_equiv_hashrate_hps = matmul_security_weight · network_matmul_rate_hps

This prevents the same difficulty signal from being counted twice. The pricing path and public compute chart are linear in measured network compute.

MatMul-Rate Release Envelope

The one-week network MatMul rate is the headline security input. Version 1.7.2 keeps the release-envelope values as diagnostics only, because using the effective value in the price path can make the model price fall while current BTX compute and Bitcoin price rise.

The diagnostic effective MatMul rate still passes upward moves through one-for-one and releases downward moves toward the lower observation with a seven-day half-life. It is published so historical guardrail state remains auditable, not so it can damp the current model price.

Circulating Supply Layer

The token price is affected by how much BTX is actually circulating, but the model avoids treating low float as a free multiplier. A smaller public float can create scarcity, while future issuance creates an unlock drag. Both effects are deliberately small and capped.

F_float = clamp((float_anchor / max(S_circ / S_max, 5%))^α)
F_unlock = (1 + U_12m / max(S_circ, 5% · S_max))^-δ
F_supply = clamp(F_float · F_unlock)

This keeps supply informative without letting a low-float or early-chain state produce absurd per-token estimates.

Mining Regime Premium

The current spot model can sit above the compute-only floor through a Bitcoin mining-regime overlay. The API exposes this as a risk index and horizon weight, so readers can separate the floor calculation from the additional mining-market premium.

Forward Market Price Curve

The Forward Market Price is a single expected value, not a public bull/base/bear table. Internally, the model computes bear, base, and bull security-adoption paths, caps each path at an explicit share of Bitcoin-equivalent security, and probability-weights the scenario outputs. This follows standard scenario-valuation practice: weight nonlinear outcomes after they are calculated rather than blending the inputs before the formula runs.

progress_s(m) = (1 - 2^(-m / HL_s)) / (1 - 2^(-12 / HL_s))
security_s(m) = min(max(cap_s, S_0), S_0 · growth_12m_s^progress_s(m) · trend_multiplier(m))
E[S_m] = Σ p_s · security_s(m)
projected_blocks(m) = round(m · 30.4375 · 86400 / 90)
Q_m = BTX protocol supply at current_height + projected_blocks(m)
ForwardMarketCap(m) = P_BTC · E[S_m] / 100 · F_supply · R_BTC(m) · Q_now
ForwardMarketPrice(m) = ForwardMarketCap(m) / Q_m

The cap is applied in security-share space, not price space. When BTX remains tiny relative to Bitcoin, the curve responds almost linearly to real compute gains. As BTX approaches a scenario cap, the explicit cap prevents the projection from implying an unbounded climb.

`F_supply` is the capped float/unlock adjustment. `Q_m` is the actual projected token denominator, built from BTX's 90-second block target and issuance schedule. Month zero remains continuous because `Q_m` equals current circulating supply; future per-token prices divide the forward market cap by the larger projected supply.

The modeling frame borrows from probability-weighted valuation and expected-present-value methods used in finance and accounting, plus diffusion/adoption modeling for bounded technology uptake: Aswath Damodaran's scenario-valuation work , FASB Concepts Statement No. 7 , IFRS 13 expected present value , and Frank Bass's diffusion model .

Dashboard Forecast Rows

The dashboard's Forward Market Price and forward difficulty charts use `forecast.rows[]`, not old historical snapshots. On each 10-minute ingest refresh, the app rebuilds a small monthly series from the current live inputs so every point from now through 12 months reflects the same model state as the headline tiles.

forecast.rows[m] = {
  t = computed_at + m model_months,
  forward_market_price_usd = ForwardMarketPrice(m),
  btx_security_percent_forward = E[S_m]
}

Live Chain State

bitcoin block height

954386

bitcoin circulating supply

20044943

bitcoin max supply

21000000

bitcoin source

mempool.space + blockchain.info totalbc

btx block height

135298

btx circulating supply

2705980

btx projected supply 12m

9718780

btx max supply

21000000

btx source

via live btx node

Model Fields

btx block time seconds

90

chi

241400000

float alpha

0.08

float floor

0.05

float multiplier max

1.25

float multiplier min

0.90

forward trend down cap monthly log

0.35

forward trend down weight

0.55

forward trend up cap monthly log

0.45

forward trend up weight

0.35

matmul anchor hps

554455.9237024327

matmul security weight

45251427826.03048142932710193

nonce anchor nps

332675.584114231109619140625

nonce release half life seconds

604800

risk half life months

6.0

risk index

0.635

risk long weight

0.75

risk spot weight

0.25

scenario base growth 12m

24

scenario base half life months

6.0

scenario base probability

0.50

scenario base security cap percent

1.00

scenario bear growth 12m

8

scenario bear half life months

9.0

scenario bear probability

0.35

scenario bear security cap percent

0.10

scenario bull growth 12m

80

scenario bull half life months

4.0

scenario bull probability

0.15

scenario bull security cap percent

10.00

supply

21000000

supply circulating anchor

21000000

supply multiplier max

1.25

supply multiplier min

0.85

supply unlock drag exponent

0.05

Programmatic Access

The documentation page uses the same public payload as the JSON and Markdown endpoints. Programmatic clients should cite `computed_at`, the one-week network MatMul input, effective MatMul rate, supply adjustment, `forward_market_price`, `forward_model` scenario metadata, model version, and the forecast row they consume.

nonce_seed_v2_activation_height = 125000; nonce_seed_v3_activation_height = 130500; v03211_activation_height = 132000; network_matmul_rate_hps = getnetworkhashps(6720) and is the compute-equivalent BTX MatMul/sec field used for charts, security, and valuation; btx_nonce_rate_raw is the legacy-compatible protocol audit field; for btx_block_height <= 124999, btx_nonce_rate_raw = max(getnetworkhashps(6720), getnetworkhashps(6720) * work_per_block / 2^pre_hash_epsilon_bits); for btx_block_height >= 125000, btx_nonce_rate_raw is the one-week height-weighted protocol-era transition: legacy window blocks use the pre-125000 shared-seed transform, and nonce_seed_v2/nonce_seed_v3/v0.32.11-v3-fix window blocks use getnetworkhashps(6720) without shared-seed amortization; v3 and v0.32.11 change seed binding/solver correctness, not the Bitcoin-style chainwork formula; security_equiv_hashrate_hps = matmul_security_weight * network_matmul_rate_hps; btx_security_percent = 100 * security_equiv_hashrate_hps / btc_hashrate_hps; compute_floor_usd = btc_price_usd * (security_equiv_hashrate_hps / btc_hashrate_hps); equivalence invariant: when security_equiv_hashrate_hps == btc_hashrate_hps, btx_security_percent == 100 and compute_floor_usd == btc_price_usd; btx_supply_multiplier = clamp(float_multiplier * unlock_drag_multiplier, supply_multiplier_min, supply_multiplier_max); model_compute_floor_usd = compute_floor_usd * btx_supply_multiplier; spot.usd = model_compute_floor_usd * (1 + risk_index * risk_spot_weight); effective_network_matmul_rate_hps remains an audit/diagnostic release-envelope field only: if network_matmul_rate_hps >= prior_effective_network_matmul_rate_hps then effective_network_matmul_rate_hps = network_matmul_rate_hps else release_retention = 2^(-elapsed_seconds / nonce_release_half_life_seconds) and effective_network_matmul_rate_hps = network_matmul_rate_hps + (prior_effective_network_matmul_rate_hps - network_matmul_rate_hps) * release_retention; effective_network_matmul_rate_hps does not drive model_compute_floor_usd, spot.usd, or forward_market_price; for each scenario s in {bear, base, bull}: progress_s(m) = (1 - 2^(-m / scenario_half_life_s)) / (1 - 2^(-12 / scenario_half_life_s)); scenario_security_s(m) = min(max(scenario_cap_s, btx_security_percent), btx_security_percent * scenario_growth_12m_s^progress_s(m) * trend_multiplier(m)); btx_security_percent_forward[m] = sum(probability_s * scenario_security_s(m)); btx_security_percent_12m = btx_security_percent_forward[12]; projected_blocks[m] = round(m * 30.4375 * 86400 / 90); projected_btx_supply[m] = protocol_supply_at(btx_block_height + projected_blocks[m]); forward_market_cap[m].usd = btc_price_usd * (btx_security_percent_forward[m] / 100) * btx_supply_multiplier * R_BTC(m) * btx_circulating_supply; forward_market_price[m].usd = forward_market_cap[m].usd / projected_btx_supply[m]; forecast.rows[m] = {t = computed_at + m model_months, forward_market_price_usd = forward_market_price[m].usd, forward_market_cap_usd = forward_market_cap[m].usd, projected_supply = projected_btx_supply[m], btx_security_percent_forward = btx_security_percent_forward[m]}

Current JSON · Markdown snapshot · Forward Market Price Markdown

Changelog

1. v1.7.2 2026-06-15

   Removes the effective MatMul release envelope from the headline valuation path. Spot, model floor, and Forward Market Price now use current network_matmul_rate_hps directly, preserving the BTC-equivalent compute invariant when BTX compute and BTC price rise. The effective MatMul field remains available for diagnostics only.

2. v1.7.1 2026-06-15

   Corrects the public nonce-rate presentation after rigorous v2/v3/v0.32.11 review: the dashboard headline and chart now use network_matmul_rate_hps/getnetworkhashps(6720), the continuous BTC-equivalent compute field. The legacy shared-seed raw nonce proxy remains available as btx_nonce_rate_raw for protocol audit only.

3. v1.7.0 2026-06-15

   Adds BTX v0.32.11 guidance and a full nonce protocol schedule: nonce-seed v2 at block 125,000, nonce-seed v3 parent-MTP binding at 130,500, and v0.32.11/v3-fix guidance at 132,000. Public nonce rows are validated and recalculated by height, while the BTC-equivalent valuation security input remains the linear getnetworkhashps(6720) network MatMul rate.

4. v1.6.0 2026-06-09

   Accounts for BTX nonce-seed v2 at block 125,000. Rows at block 124,999 and below retain the legacy shared-seed raw-nonce model; rows at 125,000 and above are recalculated with a height-weighted one-week transition toward nonce-bound MatMul work while the valuation security input remains the linear getnetworkhashps(6720) network MatMul rate.

5. v1.5.0 2026-06-07

   Makes the Forward Market Price supply-aware: the 12-month value is now a forward market cap from the existing security-adoption path divided by projected BTX supply at the horizon using the 90-second block schedule. Spot/model price remains unchanged; forward market cap remains explicit while per-token forward price accounts for issuance.

6. v1.4.0 2026-05-23

   Replaces the quadratic raw-nonce security input with a linear network MatMul-rate security-equivalence term and relaunches the forward reference as the BTX 12-Month Forward Market Price. Spot continuity is preserved by a disclosed migration coefficient while forward pricing now scales linearly with BTX compute adoption.

7. v1.3.9 2026-05-17

   Replaced the single optimistic 12-month overlay with one probability-weighted expected projection. Bear, base, and bull security-adoption paths were blended after scenario outputs were computed, preserving the then-current compute floor and parity invariant.

8. v1.3.8 2026-05-16

   Replaces symmetric nonce damping with an asymmetric release envelope: upward raw nonce-rate growth passes straight through to the model price, while downward drops release toward the lower observed compute power with a seven-day half-life.

9. v1.3.7 2026-05-13

   Raises the nonce soft-cap threshold from 10x to 20x and reprices historical chart rows from raw snapshot inputs at read time, so sustained nonce-rate growth above the old anchor remains visible in model price charts while extreme 100x shocks are still heavily damped.

10. v1.3.6 2026-05-05

    Publishes a 13-point monthly next-12-month forecast series for the dashboard's 12-month price and difficulty charts, recalculated from the current model inputs on each 10-minute refresh.

11. v1.3.5 2026-05-05

    Adds btx_security_percent_12m, a model-implied 12-month BTX difficulty/security estimate using current BTC-equivalent security plus the forward model's relative network-growth and participant-expansion layers.

12. v1.3.4 2026-05-05

    Adds btx_security_percent, the derived BTC-equivalent BTX security percentage, to the dashboard, history API, current API, Markdown surfaces, and valuation docs while preserving the 100% parity invariant.

13. v1.3.3 2026-05-04

    Switches the BTC hash-rate input to mempool.space currentHashrate, the Bitcoin Core getnetworkhashps(1008) rolling one-week estimate, so the dashboard no longer records flat intraday daily-bucket means; daily hashrate buckets remain a compatibility fallback.

14. v1.3.2 2026-05-02

    Aligns the Bitcoin hash-rate denominator to mempool.space's one-week network hash-rate endpoint, makes the default public history API return the same chart-ready 7D/10-minute series as the dashboard, tightens chart-ready completeness checks, and fixes SVG time/domain rendering for partial 7D history.

15. v1.3.1 2026-05-02

    Refines the raw BTX nonce-rate estimator to derive work-per-block from the exact 6,720-block chainwork delta used by getnetworkhashps, replaces the hard nonce cap with a monotonic soft cap above 10x, stops persisting static fallback nonce rows, and buckets dashboard charts to honest 10-minute series with actual-span trend labels.

16. v1.3.0 2026-05-01

    Corrects the headline BTX nonce-rate input from daemon chainwork/sec to raw MatMul nonce attempts/sec using the active 18-bit sigma pre-hash gate, while retaining getnetworkhashps(6720) as an audit chainwork field and preserving the BTC-equivalent security parity invariant.

17. v1.2.0 2026-05-01

    Redefines the headline BTX nonce-rate input as the one-week chain-inferred getnetworkhashps(6720) estimate, adds nonce-window metadata, preserves BTC-equivalent parity in the guarded nonce transform, and adds a historical snapshot backfill path.

18. v1.1.0 2026-04-29

    Adds nonce-rate damping, capped circulating-supply adjustment, BTC/BTX block height and supply fields, public C reference source, and downloadable workbook.

19. v1.0.0 2026-04-28

    Initial BTC-anchored BTX valuation model with raw compute floor, spot premium, growth, Bitcoin regime, and participant forward overlays.