# BTX 12-Month Forward Market Price

- source: https://btxprice.com/forward-market-price
- canonical_json: https://btxprice.com/api/current.json
- current_snapshot_markdown: https://btxprice.com/api/current.md
- model_version: 1.7.2
- computed_at: 2026-06-19T10:50:08Z

## Live value

| field | value |
| --- | ---: |
| forward_market_price.usd | 259.9072389944801677686644939 |
| forward_market_price.sats | 416404.5676570167867226308440 |
| forward_market_price.mcap_usd | 2525929294.746975068873187377 |
| forward_market_price.forward_market_cap_usd | 2525929294.746975068873187377 |
| forward_market_price.projected_supply | 9718580 |
| forward_market_price.projected_blocks | 350640 |
| expected_security_percent_12m | 0.9688122982850238431046994911 |
| expected_multiplier_12m | 24.89953837783319717484574712 |

## Formula

```text
M_BTX_1w = getnetworkhashps(6720)
SEH = matmul_security_weight * M_BTX_1w
S_now = 100 * SEH / H_BTC
progress_s(m) = (1 - 2^(-m / HL_s)) / (1 - 2^(-12 / HL_s))
security_s(m) = min(max(cap_s, S_now), S_now * growth_12m_s^progress_s(m) * trend_multiplier(m))
E[S_m] = sum(probability_s * security_s(m))
projected_blocks(m) = round(m * 30.4375 * 86400 / 90)
Q_m = BTX protocol supply at current_height + projected_blocks(m)
ForwardMarketCap(m) = P_BTC * E[S_m] / 100 * F_supply * R_BTC(m) * Q_now
ForwardMarketPrice(m) = ForwardMarketCap(m) / Q_m
```

Full public formula string:

```text
nonce_seed_v2_activation_height = 125000; nonce_seed_v3_activation_height = 130500; v03211_activation_height = 132000; network_matmul_rate_hps = getnetworkhashps(6720) and is the compute-equivalent BTX MatMul/sec field used for charts, security, and valuation; btx_nonce_rate_raw is the legacy-compatible protocol audit field; for btx_block_height <= 124999, btx_nonce_rate_raw = max(getnetworkhashps(6720), getnetworkhashps(6720) * work_per_block / 2^pre_hash_epsilon_bits); for btx_block_height >= 125000, btx_nonce_rate_raw is the one-week height-weighted protocol-era transition: legacy window blocks use the pre-125000 shared-seed transform, and nonce_seed_v2/nonce_seed_v3/v0.32.11-v3-fix window blocks use getnetworkhashps(6720) without shared-seed amortization; v3 and v0.32.11 change seed binding/solver correctness, not the Bitcoin-style chainwork formula; security_equiv_hashrate_hps = matmul_security_weight * network_matmul_rate_hps; btx_security_percent = 100 * security_equiv_hashrate_hps / btc_hashrate_hps; compute_floor_usd = btc_price_usd * (security_equiv_hashrate_hps / btc_hashrate_hps); equivalence invariant: when security_equiv_hashrate_hps == btc_hashrate_hps, btx_security_percent == 100 and compute_floor_usd == btc_price_usd; btx_supply_multiplier = clamp(float_multiplier * unlock_drag_multiplier, supply_multiplier_min, supply_multiplier_max); model_compute_floor_usd = compute_floor_usd * btx_supply_multiplier; spot.usd = model_compute_floor_usd * (1 + risk_index * risk_spot_weight); effective_network_matmul_rate_hps remains an audit/diagnostic release-envelope field only: if network_matmul_rate_hps >= prior_effective_network_matmul_rate_hps then effective_network_matmul_rate_hps = network_matmul_rate_hps else release_retention = 2^(-elapsed_seconds / nonce_release_half_life_seconds) and effective_network_matmul_rate_hps = network_matmul_rate_hps + (prior_effective_network_matmul_rate_hps - network_matmul_rate_hps) * release_retention; effective_network_matmul_rate_hps does not drive model_compute_floor_usd, spot.usd, or forward_market_price; for each scenario s in {bear, base, bull}: progress_s(m) = (1 - 2^(-m / scenario_half_life_s)) / (1 - 2^(-12 / scenario_half_life_s)); scenario_security_s(m) = min(max(scenario_cap_s, btx_security_percent), btx_security_percent * scenario_growth_12m_s^progress_s(m) * trend_multiplier(m)); btx_security_percent_forward[m] = sum(probability_s * scenario_security_s(m)); btx_security_percent_12m = btx_security_percent_forward[12]; projected_blocks[m] = round(m * 30.4375 * 86400 / 90); projected_btx_supply[m] = protocol_supply_at(btx_block_height + projected_blocks[m]); forward_market_cap[m].usd = btc_price_usd * (btx_security_percent_forward[m] / 100) * btx_supply_multiplier * R_BTC(m) * btx_circulating_supply; forward_market_price[m].usd = forward_market_cap[m].usd / projected_btx_supply[m]; forecast.rows[m] = {t = computed_at + m model_months, forward_market_price_usd = forward_market_price[m].usd, forward_market_cap_usd = forward_market_cap[m].usd, projected_supply = projected_btx_supply[m], btx_security_percent_forward = btx_security_percent_forward[m]}
```

## API fields

| variable | value |
| --- | ---: |
| btc_price_usd | 62417 |
| btc_hashrate_hps | 929270524048054800000 |
| network_matmul_rate_hps | 7990210.5255659 |
| effective_network_matmul_rate_hps | 7991811.638395292938309473341 |
| security_equiv_hashrate_hps | 361568434912434404.6941771029 |
| matmul_security_weight | 45251427826.03048142932710193 |
| btx_security_percent | 0.03890884576187599346269581214 |
| btx_security_percent_12m | 0.9688122982850238431046994911 |
| btx_nonce_rate_raw | 7990210.5255659 |

## Scenario blend

| scenario | probability | growth_12m | security_cap_percent | half_life_months | security_percent_12m |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Bear | 0.35 | 8 | 0.10 | 9.0 | 0.10 |
| Base | 0.5 | 24 | 1.00 | 6.0 | 0.9338122982850238431046994911 |
| Bull | 0.15 | 80 | 10.00 | 4.0 | 3.112707660950079477015664970 |

## Forecast rows

| months | t | forward_market_price_usd | forward_market_cap_usd | projected_supply | btx_security_percent_forward |
| ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 0 | 2026-06-19T10:50:08Z | 31.10066061860840699177423664 | 84151545.48861825547020289402 | 2705780 | 0.03890884576187599346269581214 |
| 1 | 2026-07-19T21:20:08Z | 41.58063833772142554381731127 | 136807784.6460042798957568412 | 3290180 | 0.06141925426995778281412732274 |
| 2 | 2026-08-19T07:50:08Z | 55.56083775038394375129489439 | 215274910.7308826207798921719 | 3874580 | 0.09421049246077551346189567101 |
| 3 | 2026-09-18T18:20:08Z | 73.08495791546974417227863601 | 325884365.6459212798693069924 | 4458980 | 0.1394839204022377610126648656 |
| 4 | 2026-10-19T04:50:08Z | 93.84074528250305654765634840 | 473274537.9428702653313190744 | 5043380 | 0.1986815894299297485593767830 |
| 5 | 2026-11-18T15:20:08Z | 114.6020857540247914010250248 | 644955326.1647856405508606140 | 5627780 | 0.2662018988800083601482685025 |
| 6 | 2026-12-19T01:50:08Z | 136.7689770356761414838406654 | 849633503.7614866126030853045 | 6212180 | 0.3455071220789584040329702879 |
| 7 | 2027-01-18T12:20:08Z | 159.8123775329285071963115027 | 1086177608.892751233440306833 | 6796580 | 0.4359675797485834741086799027 |
| 8 | 2027-02-17T22:50:08Z | 182.7659026360248628448194398 | 1348991472.038446792160355389 | 7380980 | 0.5352676579766712979352285973 |
| 9 | 2027-03-20T09:20:08Z | 204.7998547408269743024331931 | 1631308666.955488364569115308 | 7965380 | 0.6407650136739227144018695030 |
| 10 | 2027-04-19T19:50:08Z | 225.2693753045118916361161453 | 1926003599.591009680872633097 | 8549780 | 0.7497866919005869901213713772 |
| 11 | 2027-05-20T06:20:08Z | 243.7266504802263060164880456 | 2226243096.283473519889684776 | 9134180 | 0.8598520389578045306393894074 |
| 12 | 2027-06-19T16:50:08Z | 259.9072389944801677686644939 | 2525929294.746975068873187377 | 9718580 | 0.9688122982850238431046994911 |

## Source artifacts

- C source: https://btxprice.com/downloads/btx-valuation-model-v1.7.c
- Excel workbook: https://btxprice.com/downloads/btx-valuation-model-v1.7.xlsx
- Changelog: https://btxprice.com/downloads/btx-valuation-model-changelog-v1.7.md

## Hardware context

Local BTXE benchmarks on the M4 Max machine available to this project show
the live-mainnet-like Metal solve path in the approximate 14.5k-17k
nonces/sec band (`block_height=61000`, `epsilon_bits=18`,
`nbits=503725172`, product digest active). This is hardware context only;
the Forward Market Price uses chain-observed network MatMul rate, not a
single workstation benchmark.