Valuation model
BTX valuation methodology
The BTX price dashboard estimates a current model price and a 12-month target by anchoring BTX mining work to Bitcoin's market value per unit of network security. Version 1.1.0 keeps the original Bitcoin-relative intuition, while adding bounded nonce-rate damping and a capped circulating-supply adjustment so short-term spikes cannot dominate the output.
Compute Floor And Model Floor
The raw compute floor answers a narrow question: if BTX nonce work is treated as a measurable share of Bitcoin's network work, what price does that imply per BTX? It uses Bitcoin price, Bitcoin hash rate, BTX nonce rate, and the calibration constant χ.
P_raw = P_BTC · (χ · N_BTX / H_BTC)The public model floor keeps that raw value visible, then replaces raw BTX nonce rate with a damped effective nonce rate and applies a bounded supply multiplier.
N_eff = N_anchor · clamp(N_BTX / N_anchor, r_min, r_max)^β
P_model = P_BTC · (χ · N_eff / H_BTC) · F_supply- btc block height
- 947168
- btc circulating supply
- 20022387
- btc hashrate hps
- 917175250726740300000
- btc price usd
- 76008
- btx block height
- 86184
- btx circulating supply
- 1017600.71924632
- btx nonce rate
- 25897.93157590282
- btx nonce rate effective
- 27620.275809121944576111
- btx nonce rate raw
- 25897.93157590282
Nonce-Rate Damping
Raw nonce rate is useful signal, but it is noisy. A one-week or one-month 100x jump should not create a 100x valuation jump, because a small network can temporarily attract or lose miners faster than the market can validate persistent demand.
The model therefore uses a concave transform and a hard cap on the raw-to-anchor ratio. With the current parameters, a 100x raw nonce-rate scenario is treated like a capped 10x scenario and becomes roughly a 4.47x effective nonce-rate move.
| effective nonce | — nps |
|---|---|
| nonce multiplier | 0.8872966477137223x |
| capped ratio | 0.8319666330930980767828396871x |
Circulating Supply Layer
The token price is affected by how much BTX is actually circulating, but the model avoids treating low float as a free multiplier. A smaller public float can create scarcity, while future issuance creates an unlock drag. Both effects are deliberately small and capped.
F_float = clamp((float_anchor / max(S_circ / S_max, 5%))^α)
F_unlock = (1 + U_12m / max(S_circ, 5% · S_max))^-δ
F_supply = clamp(F_float · F_unlock)This keeps supply informative without letting a low-float or early-chain state produce absurd per-token estimates.
Forward Curve
The 12-month target is not just the spot model projected forward. It layers relative BTX network growth, the Bitcoin regime-premium ramp, and participant expansion onto the model floor.
P_hat(m) = P_model · G_rel^e(m) · R_BTC(m) · Q_part(m)| Horizon | Price (USD) | Price (sats) | Circ. mcap (USD) | FDV (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| now | 0.0007197542297805413585459849345 | 0.9469453607258990613435229640 | 732.4224219052599605451740113 | 15114.83882539136852946568362 |
| 1m | 0.01552386045548033067888093246 | 20.42398228539144653047170358 | 15797.09156497628929658091004 | 326001.0695650869442564995817 |
| 3m | 0.4706900110213013898327681785 | 619.2637762094797782243555659 | 478974.4937573345821242911465 | 9884490.231447329186488131749 |
| 6m | 7.994119603362874519786717038 | 10517.47132323291564017829312 | 8134821.858123167469942086236 | 167876511.6706203649155210578 |
| 12m | 78.39344231151115328035745162 | 103138.4095246699732664422845 | 79773223.28038864426478237862 | 1646262288.541734218887506484 |
Open Source Files
The model is published as executable reference material, not just a written description. Use the C file for audit and ports, the workbook for local scenario work, and the changelog to understand revisions.
Live Chain State
- bitcoin block height
- 947168
- bitcoin circulating supply
- 20022387
- bitcoin max supply
- 21000000
- bitcoin source
- mempool.space + blockchain.info totalbc
- btx block height
- 86184
- btx circulating supply
- 1017600.71924632
- btx projected supply 12m
- 8736500
- btx max supply
- 21000000
- btx source
- via live btx node
Model Fields
- btx block time seconds
- 90
- chi
- 241400000
- float alpha
- 0.08
- float floor
- 0.05
- float multiplier max
- 1.25
- float multiplier min
- 0.90
- growth half life months
- 3.0
- growth relative monthly
- 6.87
- nonce anchor nps
- 31128.57
- nonce damping exponent
- 0.65
- nonce ratio max
- 10.0
- nonce ratio min
- 0.10
- participants curve
- 0.75
- participants exponent
- 0.60
- participants initial
- 12
- participants target
- 1000
- risk half life months
- 6.0
- risk index
- 0.635
- risk long weight
- 0.75
- risk spot weight
- 0.25
- supply
- 21000000
- supply circulating anchor
- 21000000
- supply multiplier max
- 1.25
- supply multiplier min
- 0.85
- supply unlock drag exponent
- 0.05
Programmatic Access
The documentation page uses the same public payload as the JSON and Markdown endpoints. Programmatic clients should cite `computed_at`, the raw inputs, effective nonce, supply adjustment, model version, and the forward row they consume.
compute_floor_usd = btc_price_usd * (chi * btx_nonce_rate_raw / btc_hashrate_hps); btx_nonce_rate_effective = nonce_anchor_nps * clamp(btx_nonce_rate_raw / nonce_anchor_nps, nonce_ratio_min, nonce_ratio_max)^nonce_damping_exponent; btx_supply_multiplier = clamp(float_multiplier * unlock_drag_multiplier, supply_multiplier_min, supply_multiplier_max); model_compute_floor_usd = btc_price_usd * (chi * btx_nonce_rate_effective / btc_hashrate_hps) * btx_supply_multiplier; spot.usd = model_compute_floor_usd * (1 + risk_index * risk_spot_weight); forward[m].usd = model_compute_floor_usd * G_rel^e(m) * R_BTC(m) * Q_part(m)Changelog
-
v1.1.0
2026-04-29
Adds nonce-rate damping, capped circulating-supply adjustment, BTC/BTX block height and supply fields, public C reference source, and downloadable workbook.
-
v1.0.0
2026-04-28
Initial BTC-anchored BTX valuation model with raw compute floor, spot premium, growth, Bitcoin regime, and participant forward overlays.