# BTX valuation model

- source: https://btxprice.com/valuation-model
- canonical_json: https://btxprice.com/api/current.json
- current_snapshot_markdown: https://btxprice.com/api/current.md
- model_version: 1.3.2
- computed_at: 2026-05-02T10:10:16Z

## Purpose

The BTX model estimates a current model price and 12-month target by
anchoring BTX mining security to Bitcoin's market value per unit of network
work. The security-equivalence invariant is explicit: if
`chi * N_BTX_1w == H_BTC`, the raw compute floor equals Bitcoin price.

## Formula

```text
btx_chainwork_rate = getnetworkhashps(6720); btx_work_per_block = (tip.chainwork - start.chainwork) / window_blocks; btx_nonce_rate_raw = max(btx_chainwork_rate, btx_chainwork_rate * btx_work_per_block / 2^pre_hash_epsilon_bits); compute_floor_usd = btc_price_usd * (chi * btx_nonce_rate_raw / btc_hashrate_hps); equivalence invariant: when chi * btx_nonce_rate_raw == btc_hashrate_hps, compute_floor_usd == btc_price_usd; btx_nonce_ratio_bounded = soft_cap(max(btx_nonce_rate_raw / nonce_anchor_nps, nonce_ratio_min), nonce_ratio_max, nonce_overflow_exponent); btx_nonce_rate_damped = nonce_anchor_nps * btx_nonce_ratio_bounded^nonce_damping_exponent; parity_progress = clamp(log(btx_nonce_rate_raw / nonce_anchor_nps) / log((btc_hashrate_hps / chi) / nonce_anchor_nps), 0, 1)^nonce_parity_blend_exponent; btx_nonce_rate_effective = geometric_blend(btx_nonce_rate_damped, btx_nonce_rate_raw, parity_progress); btx_supply_multiplier = clamp(float_multiplier * unlock_drag_multiplier, supply_multiplier_min, supply_multiplier_max); model_compute_floor_usd = btc_price_usd * (chi * btx_nonce_rate_effective / btc_hashrate_hps) * btx_supply_multiplier; spot.usd = model_compute_floor_usd * (1 + risk_index * risk_spot_weight); forward[m].usd = model_compute_floor_usd * G_rel^e(m) * R_BTC(m) * Q_part(m)
```

## Nonce measurement

| field | value |
| --- | --- |
| method | matmul_raw_nonceps(getnetworkhashps(6720)+chainwork_window) |
| rpc | getnetworkhashps 6720 |
| window_label | 1w |
| window_blocks | 6720 |
| window_seconds | 604800 |
| invariant | When chi * btx_nonce_rate_raw equals btc_hashrate_hps, compute_floor_usd equals btc_price_usd. |

## Current inputs

| variable | value |
| --- | ---: |
| btc_price_usd | 78268 |
| btc_hashrate_hps | 962338906289951200000 |
| btx_nonce_rate_raw | 401954.6373136659180751811665 |
| btx_nonce_rate_effective | 376203.129171096 |
| btc_circulating_supply | 20023521 |
| btx_circulating_supply | 1777020 |

## Open artifacts

- C source: https://btxprice.com/downloads/btx-valuation-model-v1.3.c
- Excel workbook: https://btxprice.com/downloads/btx-valuation-model-v1.3.xlsx
- Changelog: https://btxprice.com/downloads/btx-valuation-model-changelog-v1.3.md

## Changelog

- v1.3.2 (2026-05-02): Aligns the Bitcoin hash-rate denominator to mempool.space's one-week network hash-rate endpoint, makes the default public history API return the same chart-ready 7D/10-minute series as the dashboard, tightens chart-ready completeness checks, and fixes SVG time/domain rendering for partial 7D history.
- v1.3.1 (2026-05-02): Refines the raw BTX nonce-rate estimator to derive work-per-block from the exact 6,720-block chainwork delta used by getnetworkhashps, replaces the hard nonce cap with a monotonic soft cap above 10x, stops persisting static fallback nonce rows, and buckets dashboard charts to honest 10-minute series with actual-span trend labels.
- v1.3.0 (2026-05-01): Corrects the headline BTX nonce-rate input from daemon chainwork/sec to raw MatMul nonce attempts/sec using the active 18-bit sigma pre-hash gate, while retaining getnetworkhashps(6720) as an audit chainwork field and preserving the BTC-equivalent security parity invariant.
- v1.2.0 (2026-05-01): Redefines the headline BTX nonce-rate input as the one-week chain-inferred getnetworkhashps(6720) estimate, adds nonce-window metadata, preserves BTC-equivalent parity in the guarded nonce transform, and adds a historical snapshot backfill path.
- v1.1.0 (2026-04-29): Adds nonce-rate damping, capped circulating-supply adjustment, BTC/BTX block height and supply fields, public C reference source, and downloadable workbook.
- v1.0.0 (2026-04-28): Initial BTC-anchored BTX valuation model with raw compute floor, spot premium, growth, Bitcoin regime, and participant forward overlays.